Water Penguin MillTier 1
at AMB Store Championship
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
9-3-1
overall winrate
73.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.9%
avg ELO -0.0 per match
expected value
54.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1538
· median 1538
· range 1505–1571
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
956
Q1 1206
Q3 1410
1571
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 40.9% | -5.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.6% | +6.3 |
| Water Allies | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 46.5% | -2.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Kongming | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
